Home Heating Calculations
Housing units = 150 million
Percentage of households using fossil fuels = 52%
Number of households to convert = 5.2 e-1 x 1.5 e8 = 7.5 e7 = 75 million
Single Family Houses (SFH)
Percentage of single family homes = 85/133 = 64%
Number of SFH to convert = 6.4 e-1 x 7.5 e7 = 48 million
Conversion cost, In Seattle, in 2024, for a 1400 sq. ft. house that has forced air heating:
Upgraded electric service = $15,000
Heavy duty heat pump that will deliver full output down to an outdoor temperature of 5 degrees F, = $15,000
Average SFH size = 2,300 sq ft
Cost to convert avg. size house in Seattle
=$3.0 e4 x (2300/1400) = $4.9 e4 = $49 thousand
In colder areas, additional resistive heating is needed, add $10,000 [est], in warmer areas, a less expensive heat pump would work, deduct $3,000 [est] Overall adjustment = $6,000
Cost to convert an average SFH with forced air heating
= $4.9 e4 + 6 e3 = 5.5 e4
Percentage of SFH with forced air heating = 75%
Number of SFH with forced air heating = 7.5 e-1 x 4.8 e7 = 48 million
Cost to convert all SFH with forced air heating
= $5.5 e4 x 4.8 e7 = $2.0 e12 = $2 trillion
Cost to convert SFH w/o forced air would add 3 space heaters @ [est] $7000
Number of SFH w/o forced air to convert
= 2.5 e-1 x 4.8 e7 = 1.2 e07 = 12 million
Cost to convert SFH w/o forced air
= $5.5 e4 + (3 x $7e3) = $7.6 e4
Cost to convert all SFH w/o forced air
=1.2 e7 x $7.6 e4 = $9.1 e11 = $910 billion
Multiple Units
Number of units to convert = 7.5 e7 – 4.8 e7 = 2.7 e7
Size of Multiple Unit = 890 sq ft
Cost of heat source
= $(890/2,300) x 5.5 e4 = $2.1 e4 = $21,000
Total cost including 2 space heaters
= $2.1 e4 + (2 x $7 e3) = $3.5 e4) = $35,000
Cost to convert all multiple units
=$2.7 e7 x $3.5 e4 = $950 billion
Administrative costs
Vetting, estimates, verification, per unit = $1000
Total administrative costs = $1 e3 x 7.5 e7 = $7.5 e10 = $75 billion
Total cost to convert all residential units
= $2 trillion + $910 billion + $950 billion + $75 billion
= $3.9 trillion
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